In determining the likely course President-elect Trump will take with the Department of Defense (DOD), we think it’s instructive to examine three things: 1) his actions and priorities during his first term as President; 2) the changes in geopolitics since he left office; and 3) the policies being discussed by his allies in the think tanks from which he is likely to draw personnel. While President, Trump (with Congress) established the Space Force, increased defense spending by 19% (or an average annual increase of 4.5%), and jump-started the Pentagon’s transformation from prioritizing counter-terror and counterinsurgency operations to a focus on great-power rivalries. In his first term, President Trump did not commit US troops to major overseas military campaigns. Since he left office, the Department has withdrawn personnel from Afghanistan while becoming indirectly involved in complicated conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East.
Chart I. Source: Department of Defense – National Budget Estimates for FY17 and FY21 Includes Overseas Contingency Operation (OCO) Spending
As Chart I indicates, during Trump’s first term, the largest growth areas were in the investment accounts which is consistent with a National Defense Strategy focused on keeping pace with China, and to a lesser extent, Russia. The threat China poses to Taiwan is very much a focus of the paper published by the Heritage Foundation as part of Project 2025. Although while campaigning Trump tried to distance himself from the Heritage effort, scores of former Trump officials helped create it. The chapter addressing the Department of Defense in Project 2025 is written by Christopher Miller who served as the acting Secretary of Defense from November of 2020 through Inauguration Day. Miller argues that China is “by far the most significant danger to Americans’ security, freedoms, and prosperity.” He identifies China’s threat to Taiwan and other U.S. allies in the Pacific, including the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan and as a step towards Beijing’s hegemony over Asia. Miller calls for the identification of China as a top priority for defense strategy along with the continued modernization and expansion of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and the sustainment of a counterterrorism enterprise.
In his first term, President Trump funded modernization of the strategic nuclear forces as well as funding a major modernization of the nuclear command and control system. These priorities have been carried on through the Biden administration and we would expect them to continue in a second Trump administration. Miller calls for the continuation of the nuclear modernization – as well as expansion – to counter Russia’s current arsenal and China’s potential future arsenal.
In his first term, President Trump also called for the creation of the Space Force as a separate service of the military. Funding for space in the Biden administration has doubled since Trump left office (although some of this increase may be attributed to accounting changes from the Air Force to the Space Force) and the Space Development Agency has been able to implement its award to orbit timeline of 27 months. Miller suggests in his paper that the Department needs to focus on an offensive space deterrent as well as calling for the creation of “rules of the road” or arms control agreements that are unambiguously in the interests of the United States and its allies. Miller also calls for the acceleration of space-based sensors to detect and track missiles as part of a robust missile defense system.
Trump’s choice of Pete Hegseth as his planned nominee for the Secretary of Defense sends a message to the defense industrial complex that Trump may be more willing to disrupt the status quo at the Pentagon than he was in his first term. Hegseth, a former Army Infantry officer, has no experience in defense acquisition. We would expect process changes if Hegseth is nominated and confirmed along with changes in senior military leadership. How Hegseth’s leadership will impact the modernization of the Department remains to be seen. The Senate confirmation process, and the President’s initial budget submission will be instructive as will Trump’s selections for senior civilian leadership positions in the Department.