The 2024 Chief of Naval Operations Navigation Plan for America’s Warfighting Navy (NAVPLAN) was released September 18 by Admiral Lisa Franchetti the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). This strategic guidance builds on Admiral Franchetti’s vision released in January 2024 and the 2022 Navigation Plan issued by her predecessor. Increased readiness focused on China by 2027, and enhancing the Navy’s long-term advantage are the strategy’s main drivers.
Changes in the current security environment and technology, combined with industrial and budgetary constraints were the impetus for the new plan. Moving the Navy to the desired end states will use Project 33, a list of seven targets commanding the CNO’s attention, and expanding the Navy’s contribution to the Joint Warfighting ecosystem.
Project 33 (named because Franchetti is the 33rd CNO) consists of seven areas where the CNO plans to “…put my thumb on the scale”.
The seven Project 33 targets are:
- Ready the force by eliminating ship, submarine, and aircraft maintenance delays
- Scale robotic and autonomous systems to integrate more platforms at speed
- Create the command centers our fleets need to win on a distributed battlefield
- Recruit and retain the force we need to get more players on the field
- Deliver a quality of service commensurate with the sacrifices of our Sailors
- Train for combat as we plan to fight, in the real world and virtually
- Restore the critical infrastructure that sustains and projects the fight from shore
Since the Chairman of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) told his forces to be ready for war by 2027, senior Navy leaders will be tasked to accomplish these goals on the same schedule.
The Navy’s current security environment is challenging. China’s ever-increasing overall military capability, its naval presence and aggressive behavior, Russia’s belligerence and general naval combat power, and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen targeting commercial and US Navy ships in the Bab al-Mandeb strait have stretched the Navy over three combatant commands. All three areas have revealed new and evolving technology as well as the tactics and techniques using these technologies. One-way attack drones used by the Houthis and Ukrainian robotic surface vessels against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet are examples of autonomous technology employed.
We have energized our cycle of innovation, and the Navy now leads the Joint Force in operationalizing robotic and autonomous systems.
2024 NAVPLAN
September 2024
The NAVPLAN highlights the integration of autonomous and robotic systems and the influence of these technologies in decisions in areas such as personnel and budgets. A new enlisted Robotics Warfare Specialist rating was established in 2024. The Disruptive Capabilities Office stood up in 2023 aims to invest in “scalable, cutting-edge hardware and software ready for adoption and scale”. The CNO has designated this office to be the Navy’s point of contact for Replicator, the Defense Department’s initiative focusing on accelerating the purchase and fielding of autonomous technology, specifically drones and countering small drones. Charts I and II includes a sample of the Navy’s recent and planned unmanned portfolio investments.
Chart I. Source: OSD/Comptroller, House, Senate Appropriations Committees.
These investments not only shape the future Navy but impact extended deployments, which influence the NAVPLAN. Extended deployments affect personnel, logistics, maintenance, and budgets. Shipyards and the work performed there profoundly affect deployment availability for the fleet. Fleet readiness tops the CNO’s Project 33 task list. The Shipyard Infrastructure and Optimization Program (SIOP) focuses on the Navy’s four public shipyards facilities, dry docks, and industrial plant equipment. As of 2024, the SIOP has completed more than 30 facilities projects totaling approximately $900 million, according to Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command (NAVFAC).
A June 2023 GAO report, Navy Readiness: Actions Needed to Address Cost and Schedule Estimates for Shipyard Improvement, found that the Navy had not developed a full cost and schedule estimate for its SIOP, and won’t until FY25. The first plan completed in 2022 for Pearl Harbor Shipyard started with a $6.1 billion estimate in 2018. By 2022, projected costs had almost tripled to $16 billion. The original cost estimate for the entire enterprise in 2018 was $21 billion to over twenty years.
These infrastructure projects are funded in Military Construction Appropriations. For example, the FY25 budget requested a dry dock 3 replacement for $1.2 billion at the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Facility and funded by the House and Senate Military Construction Appropriation bills. However, the Senate Appropriations Defense Bill adds $560 million in emergency funding for SIOP with $550 million in Navy procurement and $10 million in RDT&E, Navy
Increasing cost estimates for shipyard improvements to improve ship throughput reduce Navy Readiness. Higher Navy infrastructure costs, increased shipbuilding dollars to grow the fleet, and a skilled worker shortage for ship repair and overhaul, will require more than the CNO’s thumb for increased Navy Readiness.
Training is another readiness-related priority in the NAVPLAN and Project 33 with a focus on the Navy’s role in the Joint Warfighting Concept, Distributed Maritime Operations, and the use of virtual training environments. Investing in warfighter competency, one of Project 33’s targets, sets the goal of “reliable, realistic, relevant, and recordable LVC-enabled architectures” by 2027. LVC is live forces, virtual environments, and constructive scenarios. Related to training and operations, is the emphasis on the Maritime Operations Center (MOC), the fleet’s information center, linking operational data to Navy elements, the Joint Force, allies, and partners in live exercises and operational deployments. The CNO sets a goal for all fleet headquarters to have ready MOCs certified and proficient by 2027, beginning in the Pacific Fleet.
Moving from virtual environments to physical ships, the NAVPLAN acknowledges time and budget constraints are factors in expanding the Navy beyond 381 battle ships and submarines, as well as increasing aircraft, munitions, personnel, network, and communications. The NAVPLAN states, “Right sizing the fleet will be a generational project for the Navy, Congress, and industry.”
Chart II. Source: OSD/Comptroller, House, Senate Appropriations Committees.
POLICY-FUNDING MISMATCH
The 2022 NAVPLAN stated “To simultaneously modernize and grow the capacity of our fleet, the Navy will require 3-5% sustained budget growth above actual inflation.” While the 2024 NAVPLAN supports this estimate, budget requests have fallen short. The FY24 Department of the Navy budget included a 4.5% increase over FY23, but the FY25 Department of the Navy request included a total of $257.6 billion. The $1.8 billion (0.7%) increase over FY24, which includes funding for the US Marine Corps, military construction, and family housing, fails to keep pace with inflation.
While primarily a strategy document, the NAVPLAN sets specific goals for 2027 and assigns taskers to Navy senior leaders, originating from Project 33. Previously, goals were mentioned regarding training and MOCs. The remaining goals cover the three areas Project 33 concentrates on – Warfighting, Warfighters, and Foundation. In readiness, the 2027 goal is achieving and sustaining an 80% combat surge ready posture, overseen by the Vice Chief of Naval Operations (VCNO). Integrating Robotic and autonomous systems for routine use by 2027 is tasked to the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfighting Requirements and Capabilities (OPNAV N9).
Recruiting and retention goals as well as Quality of Life, although it is termed “Quality of Service,” address Navy personnel in the NAVPLAN. The Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Personnel, Manpower, and Training (OPNAV N1) is tasked to achieve a 100% rating fill for all Navy components, 95% fill for deploying units and 100% of strategic depth billets. Recruiting goals are 100% shipping fill and 50% delayed entry. The VCNO will work on eliminating involuntary living aboard ships in homeport. This directive will impact housing and budgets. Infrastructure is critical to shore readiness. This goal is firmly focused on China with infrastructure directly supporting readiness in the Pacific identified as a priority.
Effective leaders give clear and concise guidance. Admiral Franchetti shared her priorities in January 2024 through a paper entitled “America’s Warfighting Navy”. Using the who, what, and where questions as well as identifying focus areas, Franchetti provides guiding principles for use by the Navy. Many focus areas tie into the national defense strategy, industrial base strategy and previous NAVPLANs. Implementing the goals will take renewed focus and increased funding. The 2024 NAVPLAN, embedded with Project 33, charts a clear course for the fleet and industry partners as the Navy prepares to meet any challenge put forth by China in 2027.