The past three months have been dramatic.
Nationally, the Presidential race has gone from a toss-up with former President Trump holding a narrow lead, to a blow-out for Trump, back to a toss-up with Vice President Harris holding a narrow lead. See RealClearPolitics (RCP) data in Chart I below for details.
RCP uses a process that generates an accurate but lagging indicator. Every poll is outdated on the day it is released because the data is collected up to a week earlier. RCP averages polls released over the previous two weeks. That makes the RCP average a good indicator of where the race was 2-3 weeks ago.
A BUMPY RIDE
Over the past 90 days, key events triggered dramatic polling shifts starting with President Biden’s disastrous June 26 debate performance. Following a July 13 assassination attempt that wounded former President Trump, the July 15-18 Republican National Convention gave Trump a polling bounce. Together, those three events turned what had been a toss-up race into a potential blowout. On July 21, that changed when President Biden withdrew from the Presidential race and endorsed Vice President Harris. Harris and her team then did a masterful job of shoring up support among Democratic National Convention delegates. She cruised to an uncontested nomination without appearing as a Presidential candidate on a single 2024 state primary ballot. Remarkable. The unified August 18-22 Democratic Convention helped the Harris campaign gain a massive fundraising edge and closed the polling gap with Trump. The post-Convention bounce gave her an edge in a toss-up race. On September 10, Harris outclassed Trump in their first and perhaps only Presidential debate.
Expect more changes between now and November 5th.
That’s the national media story. It is dramatic. It is also irrelevant because the winner of the U.S. Presidential election isn’t determined by a nationwide vote. The next President will be determined by the results in 51 separate races for electoral college votes (one in each state and the District of Columbia). All but two of those are winner-take-all contests. Nebraska (5) and Maine (4) award electoral votes proportionately.
THE 2020 CENSUS AND THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
The 2024 Presidential election is the first Presidential race with an Electoral College based on 2020 U.S. Census results.
The 2020 Census determined that the total population of the 50 states was 331,108,434. State-by-state census data was then used to apportion 435 U.S. House of Representatives seats among the 50 states. The results moved 7 House seats, one each from CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV, to FL, MT, OR, NC and TX (+2).
With 538 Electoral College votes (one for each Senate (100), and House (435) seat, and 3 for the District of Columbia), the goal for the Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance campaigns is to win enough of the 51 separate elections to secure at least 270 Electoral College votes.
Chart I. Source: RealClearPolitics.com
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
We live in a closely divided country.
As this current Electoral College map (see Chart II below) based on 270toWin data shows, the Presidential race is essentially over in over in most states (43) and DC where either Harris or Trump enjoy a commanding lead. Based on this map, the shift in electoral college votes triggered by the 2020 census increases the net number of safe GOP electoral college votes by 3.
The Presidential race will ultimately be determined by results in 7 toss-up or “battleground” states – AZ (11), GA (16), MI (15), NV (6), NC (16), PA (19), and WI (10) – with a total of 93 electoral college votes. Together, 60.4 million Americans (18.3% of the U.S. population as of the 2020 census) live in those states. In these battleground states, polling is currently within the 3-4% margin of error. That means undecided voters representing 3% of the population in those states (roughly 1.8 million people or 0.5% of the U.S. population) will decide the Presidential race. In reality, an even smaller group will decide this for four reasons. First, not all eligible voters are registered. Second, not all registered voters vote. Third, children up to 18 years-old on November 5, are not eligible to vote. Finally, it’s highly unlikely that a single candidate wins all the battleground states. In short, less than 0.3% of the U.S. population will decide the outcome of the 2024 Presidential race.
The 2024 Electoral College map favors Harris. Currently, the RCP average gives her a 1.9% lead nationally.
Harris is currently favored to win in 19 states, DC and a district in NE with a total of 226 Electoral College (EC) votes. Trump leads in 24 states with 219 EC votes.
Polls taken after the 9/10 debate show Harris’ lead surging nationally. Of the 13 polls released since the debate, Harris led in 10. In 8 of those, her margin was 4-5%. One was tied, and Trump held a narrow edge in two. Expect the RCP average to reflect those changes next week as tighter pre-debate polls fall out of the average.
In the battleground states, Harris has either taken the lead or expanded her lead in the “blue wall” states (MI, PA, and WI). Trump’s lead has grown in AZ and GA. NC and NV are now statistical dead heats.
Pennsylvania is the prize. Without it the path to victory becomes a lot more challenging. Winning the “blue wall” states is a core element of the Harris’s campaign strategy. With them, she has the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the election. She is also expanding the field by spending time in other battleground states, forcing Trump to spend time and resources defending states like GA and NC. If Trump loses PA, he has to win AZ (11), GA (16), NC (16), NV (6) and either WI (10) or MI (15). That’s a longshot.
This is far from over, but at the moment, Harris has an advantage in a closely contested race with momentum in fundraising and at the polls. At this stage in 2016, the race was Hillary Clinton’s to lose. A poorly run campaign cost her that election. In 2020, the race was Biden’s to lose. He won. Right now, the 2024 race appears to be Harris’s to lose.
With the “blue wall” states, Harris has the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the election. She can lose any one of those and recover with wins in other battleground states. Today, she has the most paths to victory. If Trump loses PA, he has to win AZ (11), GA (16), NC (16), NV (6) and either WI (10) or MI (15). That’s a longshot.
FORECAST
60% Vice President Harris wins the 2024 Presidential election.
This is far from over, but at the moment, Harris has a distinct advantage with momentum in fundraising and at the polls. At this stage in 2016, the race was Hillary Clinton’s to lose. She did with a poorly run campaign. In 2020, the race was Biden’s to lose. He won. This year, at this stage, the race is Harris’ to lose.
If Trump loses, expect him to challenge the results in several battleground states.
Chart II. Source: 270toWin.com
THE RACE FOR THE HOUSE
Republicans currently hold a narrow 221-214 House majority. After outperforming expectations and winning control of the House in the 2022 elections, Republicans under-performed in the 118th Congress. Intra-party squabbles and strategic errors by then Speaker McCarthy (R-CA) ultimately cost him his job, and created a weeks-long battle to select Speaker Johnson (R-LA) as a replacement.
We discussed earlier how the 2020 Census reapportioned 7 House seats among 13 states. Most state-approved redistricting plans prioritized incumbent protection for members of both parties over creating more competitive districts. Those new district maps were used in the 2022 House elections.
According to the Cook Political Report (CPR), only 24 House seats (5.5% of the 435 total) are considered toss-ups in 2024. Of those, 11 seats are currently held by Democrats and 13 are currently held by Republicans. 13 are currently held by freshmen. If current polling holds, Democrats need to win at least 15 of those 24 seats to regain control of the House.
The current 24 CPR toss-up races are in AK, AZ (2), CA (5), CO, ME, MI (2), NE, NC, NJ, NM, NY (3), OH, OR, PA (2) and WA. 14
of those districts are in states Harris should win. Seven are in battleground states. Three are in states Trump should win. With the average House member representing 765,000 Americans, those 24 seats represent roughly 18.36 million Americans (or 5.5% of the U.S. Population). Fewer than 550,000 undecided voters representing roughly 3% of those districts (less than 0.2% of the U.S. population) will decide those races, and ultimately, control of the House in 2025.
With Trump heading up the GOP ticket and his post-2020 election behavior, expect recounts and challenges in several close House races. With the margins so small, we may not know which party won control of the House or the make-up of the House in 2025 before December.
FORECAST
65% Democrats regain control of the House in 2025.
THE RACE FOR THE SENATE
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate. Democrats outperformed expectations in 2020 and again in 2022 with help from Donald Trump who backed weaker general election candidates in GOP primaries in several states. Republicans ultimately lost those elections.
This cycle, Republicans have a distinct advantage. Generally, Republicans have done a better candidate selection job in 2024 nominating credible candidates like former Governor Hogan (R-MD) that potentially put what had been safe Democratic seats in play in 2024. Kari Lake (R) is an exception in AZ where she trails Gallego (D) by 4.5%.
Senator Manchin (D-WV) is retiring. His seat is now a virtual lock for Republicans in a state that Trump won in 2016 and 2020 by over 40%. In the race for the WV open seat, Justice (R) leads Mooney (D) by over 34%. That’s a pick-up for Republicans.
Both political parties have become more tribal. In 2020, voters in only one state (ME), split their ticket electing Biden for President and re-electing Senator Collins (R-ME). If that trend continues in 2024, it could cost Senators Brown (D-OH) and Tester (D-MT) their seats. Both seek re-election in states Trump is likely to win by double-digits. The same trend hurts Republican pick-up chances for the open seats in MD (Hogan-R) and MI (Rogers-R) that Harris appears poised to win.
FORECAST
75% Republicans regain control of the Senate in 2025.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The most likely outcome of the 2024 elections is divided government with Republicans controlling the Senate. Control of the Senate is important because of the confirmation process for executive branch officials and judges. With Senate Republican Leader McConnell (R-KY) stepping down from his leadership role, the wild card is who Senate Republicans select to lead their caucus in what will remain a narrowly divided Senate.
The net result will be two years of legislative gridlock with operational implications for the White House, Congress, budgets, and agency planners. Barring an external event, we won’t see a massive legislative and spending agenda like we witnessed during the 117th Congress.
The most immediate post-election action-forcing event is likely the FY25 continuing resolution (CR). The bipartisan compromise version that will come up for a vote this week will keep the government operating through December 20. The key question now is whether the President and the current Congress wrap things up, providing full-year funding by the CR expiration date, or punt those decisions to the President-elect and the 119th Congress? Contested House, Senate, and potentially Presidential election results may affect that decision.
Under FBIQ’s current forecast, the most likely scenario would be to wrap-up FY25 appropriations before the end of the calendar year with a FY25 spending deal that exceeds both the Fiscal Responsibility Act defense and civilian caps, includes billions in disaster relief, and passes with bipartisan support.